Week 9 Preview: Mississippi College
Mississippi College, GSC (D2)
Broadcast: FLOSPORTS 6 PM EST/7 PM CST
When We Last Saw Mississippi College
2021 Record: 3-4 (2-3)
The Choctaws are coming off of a big loss to Valdosta State last weekend, 41-14, at home. Mississippi College and that option offense were able to eat up ground against the Blazers and their vaunted defense, MC just couldn’t get the ball in the end zone. They got into FG range and converted on their first drive, then in the next five drives the Choctaws went INT, downs, half, downs, downs, and had three turnovers on downs in Valdosta territory. Mississippi College posted 343 yards on the ground and 2 TD on 6.5 yards per carry, but failed to complete a single pass (to the offense) on 7 attempts, were sacked twice, and threw an INT. On the other side of the ball, VSU dominated on offense all night scoring on eight of eight drive and (somehow) outrushed the Choctaws piling up 379 yards 5 TD on 9.2 yards per rush. MC had five rushers over 50 yards, lead by Fullback Cole Fagan (14 carries 75 yards) and QB DeAnte’ Smith-Moore (11 carries 70 yards). Smith-Moore was 0 for 4 with an INT and a sack while Tytus Heard was o for 3 and also took a sack. For the season MC has compiled over 2000 yards on the ground, and scored 24 of their 27 TD on the ground this year. As expected from a triple option team, they have a lot of contributors to the run game. They have seven ball carries with at least 100 yards 1 TD and 5.1 yards per carry and two 400 yard guys in Fagan (441) and Smith-Moore (422). Defensively, the Choctaws have been pretty good against the pass this season, allowing just 158 yards per game and only 6 TD against 6 INT, and giving up 107 yards and no scores through the air against the Blazers. Their run defense hasn’t been quite as good, giving up 168 yards per game, which was evident against VSU.
Series History
This is another series, like North Greenville and Shorter, where UWF has won each of their matchups so far. The Argonauts and Choctaws played a thriller last season, going to overtime in Pensacola, but West Florida pulled it out 27-21 behind three Austin Reed TDs. UWF lost a fumble, threw an INT, and missed a FG attempt all in the first 25 minutes of the game, putting the Argos behind the eight ball a bit. They did hold the Choctaws scoreless in the 1st quarter and almost the whole of the second half, but MC was able t0 punch it in as time expired topping off a 14 play 89 yard drive that started with less than four minutes to play in the game. In OT the Argos got a stop and MC missed a FG, while UWF was able to convert their chance for a TD and the win.
In the previous three appearances the Argonauts had bested the Choctaws by 14, 14, and 13 points, so the games haven’t exactly been blowouts, despite MC’s place as perennial bottom feeder in the GSC. UWF will be looking to change course a little here, and hopefully come up with a momentum continuing blowout in Clinton.
Three Players to Know
Grad. Josh Miller, Safety 5-10 198
2021 Stats: 45 tackles (26 solo) 4.0 TFL 2 INT 5 PBU
The leader of this Choctaw defense, and maybe their best individual player is Josh Miller. The Grad student transferred to MC before the 2019 season and became an instant contributor finishing that season with 51 tackles (29 solo) 2.5 TFL 1 sack 1 forced fumble 1 fumble recovery and 1 INT playing Safety for the Choctaws. This year has been more of the same, leading the Choctaws in INT and PBU, while placing 2nd in tackles and solo tackles, and tied for the lead in TFL.
The MC defense is sneaky good, averaging about 40 yards per game allowed less than the Argos and have given up 2 fewer TD. Josh Miller has been a big part of that, making plays in both phases from his Safety position. The Argos should expect to see Miller all over the field, and Austin Reed is going to have to be cognizant of where the experienced Safety is at all times.
Soph. DeAnte Smith-Moore, QB 5-9 180
2021 Stats: 10 of 22 277 yards 2 TD 1 INT 83 carries 422 yards 4 TD
Smith-Moore has been the primary QB for the Choctaws this season, although they will bring in Tytus Heard as well. He isn’t going to throw the ball a lot, averaging just 4.4 attempts per game, but they can occasionally sneak one in for a big gain having 7 pass catchers with a gain of 20 yards or more and a season long passing play of 61 yards. Smith-Moore is more the conductor of the train than the engine, because he is primarily responsible for reading and distribution. However, he will probably have the most designed runs called for himself, where the Slot and Fullbacks will mostly get carries off option reads. Moore’s season peaked a couple weeks ago when he went off for 149 yards through the air and 142 yards on the ground against Shorter in a 20-7 win.
UWF is going to have to contain Smith-Moore on the edge, but he will also get some calls on designed lead plays or QB counters. He is a solid athlete and the Argonauts are going to need to disrupt his distribution. Artis, Whetzel, and Archie are going to have to contain Smith-Moore on the edge and trust that they have defensive secondary help to shore up the pitch.
Senior Cole Fagan, Fullback 6-0 231
2021 Stats: 87 attempts 441 yards 3 TD
In a triple option offense, after the QB the FB arguably is the most important piece and they have a good one in Fagan. His role has the Senior leading the Choctaws in yards and carries. He has only been tackled for loss once this season, a loss of 1 yard and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. While he primarily functions as the steady yard getter on the dive portion of their option offense, he still is capable of breaking some explosive runs (8 of 10 or more yards), he has a season high of 31 and has a 10+ yard run in all but two games (Albany State and West Georgia). He really carried the load against UWA and NGU, compiling two 20 carry 100 yard games in back to back weeks. He even had a solid game against a really good Blazer defense last week, with 14 carries 75 yards.
Fagan was Air Fore Academy’s leading rusher in 2018 with 997 yards, but was dismissed from the team for an off the field incident in 2019, so he has experience against high level competition. The reality of this game is, you’re probably not going to stop this offense from putting up a bunch of rushing yards, but what you can do to make this offense a lot less effective is shut down the dive. UWF has been stout against runs up the middle this season, and against the run in general, so they have the chops to negate Fagan. Expect to see a lot of DL rotation, keeping the front on fresh legs, which should help against an OL that is going to try to cut and wear down the down linemen.
Matchup of the Week
UWF Pass Offense vs MC Pass Defense
UWF has the best run defense in the conference, allowing just 651 yards and 10 TD on 2.5 yards per carry. MC is the leading run offense in the conference putting up 285 yards per game 24 TD and 5.7 yards per carry. So that matchup should be the big draw for the weekend, right? Well maybe not and I’ll give you two reasons why I don’t think so. First, nobody has really slowed the Choctaws down much this season since Albany State week 1 (with Tytus Heard as the primary QB). They’ve had at least 231 yards rushing and 2 TD on the ground every week since that opening game. Second, because of how fast the Argos can score, teams have a hard time “slowing down” the game against UWF. If you reel off a 15 play drive and get a FG, but Austin Reed comes out and throws a 70 yard bomb to Durden or Coates or one of his other myriad of options, you’re going to just face a fresh front 7 rotation and have to grind out another drive. UWF typically gets themselves in trouble in games where the opposing offense can also make explosive plays, and mostly in the passing game, which isn’t MC’s strength.
Where I think this game is defined is in against MC’s passing defense, who is currently second in the GSC in yards allowed per game (157.6), TD allowed (6), and tied for third in INT (6). VSU and MC are the only teams who have given up passing scores at a rate less than or equal to their INT (6 TD 6 INT). They allow just over 14 attempts per game, which is second behind just Valdosta. This pass defense is, of course, partly due to the run offense that gives teams little time on the field (they have also allowed the fewest rushing attempts against), but their 6.3 yards per attempt allowed is one tenth out of 3rd place, and 0.4 out of 2nd, showing they haven’t given up much on the limited attempts they’ve faced. The Choctaws only allowed more than 150 yards through the air twice this season, against UWG (415) and UWA (224). UWF will be looking to repeat what West Georgia was able to do, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt on 34 completions.
On the flip side, nobody has been able to stop the Argos passing attack this year, which continues to lead the GSC in yards per attempt (8.8), passing TD (25), and TD:INT ratio (5:1). Austin Reed has compiled three 300+ yard games, a 400 yard game, and has had at least 250 yards in every contest this season, as well as at least 2 TD. Five of seven games this season he has thrown 4 TD. He is throwing to four pass catchers who have at least 220 yards and 3 TD, each of the four (Durden, Coates, Ashley, Smith) have one 100 yard 2 TD game, and are averaging 13.8 yards per completion or better for the season. Durden and Smith have provided an explosive averaging over 20 yards per catch, while Coates has been the primary target for the season (31 catches 522 yards 6 TD).
The key to this matchup is going to be making the most of the attempts you’re given on offense, UWF cant afford to have a cold streak during the game because they might get fewer than 20 opportunities to throw this week. They also need to avoid turnovers, especially on short fields where MC can nickel and dime you to an easy score.
Prediction
MC is a better team than their record would indicate. They’ve already played VSU, UWG, UWA, and Albany State, all of whom are ranked in the top 10 of the first Super Region 2 top 10, so this game won’t be a lights-too-bright situation for the Choctaws. UWF is going to have to assert themselves early on. The best way to win this game is to build a lead in the first half, and make MC take risks to try and get back into the game. If you can get them out of their rhythm and comfort zone, it’ll lead to truncated drives and shorter fields for the Argonaut offense. If I was Coach Shinnick, I would consider taking the opening kickoff, rather than differing, get a TD and an early lead and put all the pressure on MC to catch up. This is really a sneaky good matchup, because the strengths of theses offenses are also the strengths of the opposing defenses. It’ll be interesting to see if anyone tries to get out of their typical game plan, and try to surprise the other. Ultimately, I just think the Argos have too much firepower, and the Choctaws don’t affect the passer enough (13 sacks, 8 hurries in 7 games) to stop Reed and Co. from getting what they want on offense. UWF wins its second in a row heading into a big last two games, 45-20. MC will be able to put together a couple of TD drives, but fall short in the red zone and FGs wont be enough to beat the Argonauts.
