Week 8 Recap: UWF Bounces back 45-23

UWF Back to Winning the Run Game

Seven games into the 2021 season, the high flying UWF offense has been pretty much as expected. Austin Reed is among the nations top 10 in passing yards, passing efficiency, and passing TD, he has a wealth of playmakers, and the Argos are putting up lots of points (43.1 points per game). But for the first five games there was a hidden strength of this team that the outside world probably wasn’t seeing and that was the run game. UWF outrushed opponents 747-491 in their first five games, and outrushed every opponent except FCS McNeese State. McNeese was also the only game where the Argos failed to eclipse 100 yards rushing. West Florida was averaging almost 150 yards per game in those first five games, and that was really making the offense dynamic and hard to slow down when the pass game explosiveness os supplemented with a steady run game.

So it was a kick in the pants when UWG totally stuffed the Argos’ run game last weekend, holding them to season worst marks for attempts (17), yards (39), and average (2.0). The Argonauts were outgained 39-86 on the ground, the first time since week 1 that they lost the rushing battle. Shomari Mason and the ground attack couldn’t get much going early on, and in the second half the Argos gave up running as they played catch-up. A week later the Argonauts were back to their old ways, putting up arguably their best performance of the season against Shorter. Lead by Shomari Mason (6 carries 85 yards 1 TD), West Florida racked up 174 yards 2 TD. UWF didn’t match the 192 yard performance from the Southwest Baptist game, but they also ran the ball half as many times, putting together a season high 10.2 yards per carry. That smashed their previous high of 6.6 yards per carry against North Greenville. The top three rushers on the night averaged double digit yards per carry Mason (14.2), Johnson Jr (14.3), and Reed (12.0), and those three broke four runs of more than 25 yards. It was good to see the Offensive Line got starting Left Guard Juac Angoi and week 1/2 starting Center Zac Elam back for the game. Against UWG the Argos were down to their 7th OL, Oake Stipe, with Elam and Angoi out. Angoi jumped right back into the starting role, and I believe Elam came in before halftime..

As I wrote about after the game, UWF had one drive that accounted for more than half of their total rushing yards. It was a four play TD drive in the 4th quarter where Austin Reed started with an on target deep throw to Larry Rembert that was dropped. But no harm was done because the next play Shomari Mason ran a zone concept to the left, found a seam in the middle of the line and made a Shomari-like cut to get up field, made two guys miss and took it for 30 yards. On the next play, Mason got another carry this time on a shotgun pitch to the right. UWF had numbers and Elam, Roman, Dilla, and Wolfley cleared out the right side of the defense, Mason made another hard cut to get around Elam and a DL then cut across field for another 31 yard gain. On the final play of the drive Austin Reed was able to show off his wheels, getting into the second level and taking off for a 29 yard TD. Even if you eliminated the 3 carries and 90 yards on that drive, UWF still tallied 14 carries for 84 yards and a healthy 6 yard per carry average. This was a good return to form for West Florida.

Spreading the Wealth

Eleven pass catchers caught the ball on Saturday. The official roster has 18 WR 4 TE and 7 RBs listed, so more than 1/3 of potential pass catchers caught the ball. Just 14 of those pass catchers played on Saturday, and nearly everyone got in on the action including two RBs and two TEs. Jared Smith and Rodney Coates lead the way with 4 catches a piece. Smith finished with a season high 113 yards and 2 TD, while Coates snagged a TD and 93 yards. Two other players finished with multiple catches, and seven guys got 1 catch a piece.

In a rare TE sighting Mav Wolfley had both an explosive gain and a TD on the same drive. His 2 yard catch was the first TD by a UWF TE since Austin Blake-Smith had 4 in 2017. On the first catch, Wolfley just stayed alive long enough for Reed to scramble and find him about 10 yards down field, then did the rest with a strong run and stretching out for more yards. There wasn’t anything flashy about the play, but it was good effort by both QB buying time and TE making the routine catch and then turn it into more. To cap that drive Mav was rewarded with a dump off throw in the flats where he put his shoulder down and powered into the end zone. Wolfley has been a really important piece of the offense this season, providing another capable blocker on the edge, but if him providing another safety valve for Reed may prove even more valuable as the season progresses. This was his first multiple catch game as an Argo.

Rodney Coates continues to be the go to guy in terms of both production and usage. Coates was targeted 9 times, 30% of Austin Reed’s attempts, and he caught four passes for the aforementioned 93 yards and a TD. What is most impressive was his four catches went for 27, 20, 11, and 35 yards and each was good for a 1st down or a TD. He was targeted on the early INT as well, but Reed either didn’t see the Safety or thought he could beat him and Coates didn’t even really have a play on the ball.

Of the remaining 8 pass catchers, offensive playmakers Shomari and Bambi had quieter nights than usual. Mason had 3 targets 1 reception for 19 yards on a swing pass, he dropped a fastball in the middle of the field that he got hands on but it was high and fast. Ashley only had 2 targets and 1 reception for 12 yards. Winston Sweeting had his first catches of the season snagging 3 for 31 yards in the second half. Evan Mitchell, Zac Offord, Kenneth Channelle, Jacure’ Jackson, and Jervon Newton combined for 31 yards on one reception a piece.

Pass Defense, Points Allowed, and Explosive Plays

After rewatching this weekend’s game it felt like they just gave up a lot of yards, and that seems like a recurring theme. The stats kind of bear that out, UWF averages 23.3 points allowed per game (4th in GSC) two TD more than the top team in conference, Valdosta State. Their 367 yards allowed per game is more than 30% higher than league leading Valdosta State, the Argos rank 5th in yards allowed per game out of 8 conference teams. The Argos are in a virtual tie for the worst passing defense in the conference, allowing 274 yards per game through the air including over 7 yards per attempt, with only Shorter allowing more at 275 yards per game. The Argos also rank in the bottom three in conference for pass efficiency defense, only behind Shorter and North Greenville. UWF almost allows as many passing yards per game (274) as Valdosta State allows total yards per game (280). All this while UWF continues to be one of the best run defenses in the nation (17th in rush yards allowed). UWF has given up 20 touchdowns on the season so far, which isn’t a highly concerning number in a vacuum, but UWF has also played four D2 teams that are 0.500 or below for the season and have a combined record of 12-20. This team has yet to play two of the other three top scoring offenses in the GSC. In the red zone, the Argos have also have allowed 25 appearances (5th out of 8), and given up 16 TD. However, only Valdosta has more red zone stops, the Argos forcing two turnovers and two turnovers on downs in their visits inside the 20 on defense. Over 30% of drives are ending in a red zone attempt and 80% of those end in a score of some kind.

But what if that is looking at it the wrong way. The Argonauts’ philosophy is 1) create explosive plays on offense 2) don’t allow explosive plays on defense. In 7 games this season the Argonauts have allowed 40 passes (14.8% of pass attempts) over 15 yards and 17 plays over 10 yards rushing (6.5% of rush attempts). Those 40 passing plays account for almost 50% of opponent passing yards (942/1921), the 17 explosive running plays represented a smaller share (26.5%) of the overall rushing yards allowed. Looking at it like this, UWF is really only a couple of plays a game away from dramatically changing the yards allowed numbers. The Argos average just over 8 explosive plays allowed per game (2.4 run 5.8 pass), so if they can eliminate two explosive plays, one run and one pass, they’re eliminating about 37 yards. That is half of of a TD scoring drive (following a touchback) off the books. Looking back, some of these plays are there, a couple missed tackles and a near tipped ball against DSU lead to two 40+ yard TDs. UWF could probably affect their scoring average with just a few more plays on defense.

Speaking of scoring average, the 23.3 points allowed per game ranks 69th nationally, but just 3 points less would put you in the top 40 so in that context not a bad average. Also consider that UWF’s scoring offense ranks 5th nationally, this is the largest average scoring differential the Argos have ever produced (+19.8), and UWF has produced similarly in 2017 and made a title appearance (21.4 points allowed). Plus, among the top 20 scoring offenses in D2, the average scoring defense is allowing 20.7 points per game and a +20.0 scoring differential, so UWF is really right in there with most of the elite offensive teams in the country which are also some of the elite overall teams in the country (13 of the top 20 offenses are ranked in the most recent AFCA coaches poll).

So maybe this is just part of being attached to a high octane offense, you give your opponents lots of chances, but you trust the defense to make plays when needed. This also means some of this scoring is in garbage time (the 2nd half TD from SBU, the two 4th quarter TD against Shorter) inflating the numbers a little bit. Still, you’d like to see a defense with this much talent not allow so many big plays especially with a potential playoff run looming.

Super Region 2 Initial Rankings

1 Valdosta State

2 Bowie State

3 Albany State (GA)

4 West Georgia

5 West Florida

6 Wingate

7 Mars Hill

8 Newberry

9 West Alabama

10 Fayetteville State

UWF debuted as the #5 seed in the very first Super Region 2 rankings, which would mean they travel to start the playoffs, but there is a lot of movement bound to happen still. Valdosta State plays UWG this weekend and UWF to end the season. Wingate still has to play both Mars Hill and Newberry. For now this is just a list of names to know, but the good news for the Argos is even despite a loss they’re still poised to make the playoffs.

Best case scenario is facing an undefeated VSU on week 11 in Pensacola, with just one loss, which would mean the GSC and most likely the #1 seed in the super region would be at play. Even if the Argos lose one of the UWA or VSU games, it is hard to imagine they don’t make it in, although unlikely to host. Bowie State and Albany State have favorable matchups left on their schedule, and only have one and two games remaining.

Final Thoughts and Players of the Game

The Argos got a big bounce back win at home, which has to feel good for the team after the UWG disappointment. Shorter really didn’t have much for the Argos in the second half, and only scored their second TD of the game in the 4th quarter. Austin Reed lead the offense to touchdowns on six of their first eight drives, running up a 28-9 lead before half and scoring 10 more unanswered in the 3rd. Austin Reed had his fifth 4 TD game of the season, and he continues to lead one of the top passing and scoring offenses in the country. Shorter, like NGU, is not a very good team this year so this game was more about performing to expectations and getting their heads straight for these final two GSC road games. I think the team accomplished that and now have a date with a team nobody likes to play, Mississippi College. West Florida will face that hard to defend triple option offense, so it’ll be interesting to see how UWF’s league leading run defense fares against a MC offense averaging 285 yards per game on the ground.

Offensive Players of the Game: Jared Smith

Jared Smith was given an increased role with David Durden missing the game against Shorter. Smith has already been a solid contributor in the early season, putting up 66 yards on 2 catches against Commerce, then 3 catches 29 yards 1 TD against Delta State. The Freshman really stepped up on Saturday turning in a 113 yard 2 TD performance that included a 78 yard bomb from Austin Reed. Smith was targeted 5 times, four receptions (16, 10, 78, 9) and a pass interference. On the deep ball, he just beat his defender and made a great catch in stride, proving to be another great option.

Defensive Player of the Game: Shea Campbell

Campbell has been the rock of this defense so far this season, he leads the team in tackles (49), solo tackles (24), and is second on the team in sacks (3.0) and tied for 3rd in TFL (3.5). He had another very solid day against the Hawks tallying 9 tackles (3 solo) 1.0 sack 1.5 TFL, leading the team in each of those categories. He is currently 4th in tackles per game in the conference with 7.0 and 5th in total tackles despite playing one less game than two of the players ranked ahead of him. The WVU transfer was a big part of the Argos standout day against the run, less than 100 yards allowed, and came up with the only solo sack against Aeneas Dennis.