Preview Week 9: Valdosta State
Valdosta State University, GSC (D2)
Broadcast: 10/27 FloSports (free on Twitter) 4 PM CST/5 PM EST
When We Last Saw Valdosta State
2023 record: 7-1, 4-1 GSC
The Blazers have stormed back into the top of the GSC this season, currently sitting in a four way tie for 1st with UWF, Delta State, and West Georgia all only sporting a single GSC loss. In year two for current HC Tremaine Jackson, VSU is one of the best passing offenses in the country (6th nationally, 306.5 ypg), and they’re holding teams to a solid 20.1 points per game on defense (3rd in GSC). Junior QB Sammy Edwards has stepped in for departed star QB Ivory Durham and has played lights out (6th nationally in passing yards, 3rd nationally in completion %), while returning leading WR BK Smith has lead a good corps of receivers including four guys with at least 19 catches 326 yards and 2 TD. They have double digit pass catchers with at least one TD, a testament to how they’ve spread the ball around through 8 games this season. On the ground, they’ve not been asked to do much averaging just 152 yards per game, but when they do run they’ve been efficient with a 5.0 ypc average, good for 3rd in the conference. It is a wide open spread offense, they’re gonna put four on the outside and make you defend the whole field, and that, in turn, opens up some nice running lanes for RBs Eric Watts and Isaiah Flowers (combined 630 yards 10 TD). Edwards can move too, he’s accounted for 311 yards rushing (minus sacks) and 4 scores. Every player with at least 30 carries is averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry. On defense it is a real collective effort, they dont have any individual players in the top ten in the GSC for tackles, TFL, sacks, PBU, or fumbles (forced or recovered). The only player in the top 10 for an individual defensive stat is Cornerback Kyle Cass, who has 3 INT. What they do have instead is 23 (!!) players with at least 0.5 TFL, 15 with at least 0.5 sacks, and 10 players with at least 20 tackles. Their top playmaker in the front seven is probably DeAndre Clifton, a Junior Defensive End who is tied for the team lead with 4 TFL, tied for the team lead with 2 sacks, and leads the team with 4 hurries, while playing in just 7 of their 8 games, but they have three DL with 4.0 TFL. The result for the Blazers has been just one game with more than 200 yards rushing allowed (417 vs Delta) and one game with more than 300 yards passing allowed (329 vs Chowan). Last week the Blazers picked up their 2nd straight win with a 42-14 blow out of Shorter, following a 21-10 grinder against Mississippi College.
Three Players to Know
Junior Sammy Edwards, QB 6’2” 188
Stats: 176/251 (70.1%) 2340 yards (9.3 ypa) 18 TD 7 INT 51 carries 239 yards 4 TD
If the GSC handed out a breakout player of the year award, Edwards would be near the top of the list of candidates for 2023. The Junior had just ONE passing attempt in 2022 as the backup to standout QB Ivory Durham, this year he leads the GSC in passing attempts, passing yards, yards per attempt, and completion percentage, he is also 3rd in passing TD. He has been very consistent as well, with at least 250 yards in six of eight starts this season and three games over 300 yards.
UWF has faced some good QBs this year, Jeremy Moussa of FAMU, Patrick Shegog last week, Edwards is right up there with them. They’re going to need a repeat performance of last weekend against Edwards. The Argos should try to force him to check down and make throws underneath, which was a what MC was able to do to great effect. While accurate against the Choctaws (24/29) he only passed for 185 yards (6.4 ypa) and they held him without a passing TD.
Grad BK Smith, WR 5’10” 185
Stats: 35 receptions 508 yards 5 TD
I highlighted Smith as one of the top WR in the GSC in the preseason, and he has had a great year so far. He is behind only UWF’s John Jiles in receiving yards and TD, and has been a consistent weapon for the Blazers this season finishing every game with multiple receptions and posting four games with at least 70 yards. Last week he finally found pay dirt against a D2 opponent, scoring twice against Shorter, his previous 3 TDs came against NAIA opponents Point and Keiser.
BK Smith may be on the smaller side, but he is a multi talented WR who can go up and get the ball in traffic or beat you deep. He’s been a chain mover for the Blazers more so than a scoring threat, but he’s someone you always need to have a bead on when they’re on the field. The Argos CB group has been pretty solid this year, but did give up a couple of big plays last weekend, including a 55 yard score. They’re in for another challenge this weekend.
Grad Kyle Cass, CB 6’2” 195
Stats: 10 tackles 3 INT 4 PBU 1 FR
The former Troy Defensive Back has been one of the standout players of the Blazers defense this season. He is currently in the team lead with 3 INT and 4 PBU, which does put him in the top group of GSC DBs in terms of total passes defended (t-6th). Usually when you see a Corner with good passes defended numbers, but low tackles, it is an indicator that teams have not tested him much.
Cass has good length to counter the height of the UWF pass catchers, much like Malik Jones last week, and that isn’t something they’ve seen a ton of this season. He’s been disruptive all year (PBU in four different contests) and accounts for both of the INTs thrown by Delta State QB Patrick Shegog this season. He will be set to battle with a very good UWF receiving group, so watch out for that on the outside Saturday evening.
Matchup of the Week
UWF Pass Defense vs Sammy Edwards
Edwards is the engine that moves this offense, and if UWF is going to win this game they are going to have to handle him. The Junior has been highly accurate this season, outpacing all GSC QBs in completion percentage by over 5 points. One thing I like about his game is how good of a distributor he is, he is going to get a lot of guys touches, so you have to defend everyone. And they have quite a few quality pass catchers, including their backs (26 receptions and 3 TD by four RBs), meaning UWF’s LBs are going to have to be part of the pass defense. However he has thrown 7 INTs this season, including a 0 TD 3 INT day against Delta State and 2 INT week one against NAIA Point University. This is going to take a concerted, team effort from the Argonauts. One thing i think needs to happen is to see the Defensive Line come back to life a little, at least in terms of negative plays. They have been relatively quiet the last few weeks, totaling just 1 sack in the last three games, so this would be a great time for John McMullen and the DEATHROW guys to show up and takeover a game again like they were earlier in the season. On the back end, Eli Williams and Virgil Lemons have been pretty dang good this year, not allowing a single 100+ yard pass catcher through 8 games, but as previously mentioned they’re going to throw a lot of guys out there and try to get them involved. UWF may find themselves in some more 5 DB sets, which we have seen a bit of this season, but RS Freshman OLB Ralph Ortiz is also going to have to show up to play as in pass defense. Luckily, he has had an excellent season in that regard.
Prediction
Valdosta State is super talented and playing at a high level so far this season. Edwards has been a revelation at QB, and they’ve got a good stable of pass catchers (5 players with at least 2 receiving TD, 11 with 1 receiving TD) and a solid group of backs to supplement a pass heavy offense. They’re one of the better scoring defenses in the conference, and really have only played three games where they weren’t in total control, a loss to Delta State, a win against Albany State (21-16), and a surprising one against winless Chowan where the Blazers actually trailed late in the 3rd quarter before scoring 21 straight to end the game. The caveat being they’ve only played one of the top three teams in the GSC, the aforementioned loss to Delta, while having a chance to beat up on the bottom of the league, Shorter and Chowan and playing two NAIA teams. Are the Blazers good? Yes, how good remains the question. UWF on the other hand is battle tested at this point, they’ve provided the single conference loss for two of the four teams at the top of the GSC standings, stood in the cut and exchanged blows with a top 15 FCS program in FAMU, and faced a smothering UWA defense that deserves more offensive support than they’ve gotten this season. This is the best GSC rivalries from my perspective due to the proximity and recruiting overlap and it always seems to be a good game. I’m going to go with the Argonauts in this one, final score 38-24, Peewee and Jiles have a big night but the run game again shows up to stabilize the offense.
