Week 3 Preview: Texas A&M Commerce
TAMU Commerce, Lone Star Conference (D2)
Broadcast: Lonestar Conference Digital Network ($), 7 PM EST/6 PM CST
When We Last Saw Commerce
Fall 2021 Record: 1-1 (0-1)
When we (UWF fans) last saw the Lone Star Conference powerhouse, it was when they met the Argonauts in the 2017 National Championship game, coming way with the program’s first D2 Championship. A lot has happened since that December 2017 matchup, but this will once again be a meeting of juggernauts. The Lions have a combined 35-7 record since 2017, but like West Florida, did not play a Fall or Spring season so these first two weeks of 2021 are the first we have seen of them since late 2019. Commerce will most likely be without their Austin Reed counterpart, star Quarterback Miklo Smalls, who suffered a knee injury earlier in the year. Smalls was the unquestioned offensive leader (3000 yards passing 23 TDs, and 2nd leading rusher) of the 2019 team that went 11-3 and lost to Minnestoa State Mankato in round 3 of the playoffs. The Lions have turned to the running game and stout defense in his absence. They opened up against a ranked CSU-Pueblo team on the road, and came away with a 12-6 victory in the Thunderbowl. Last week they started conference play at home against Midwestern State (2-0) losing 31-30. The Lions have been lead on offense by Running Back Antonio Leali’ie’e (18 174) and backup QB Jaiave Magalei (25-56 308 3 TD 2 INT) in the absence of Smalls. Commerce has a strong defense that is allowing just 251 yards per game with 22.0 TFL 7.0 sacks 2 INT 4 fumble recoveries, the defense is lead by an All-American Safety and a Defensive End with 26.0 TFL and 16.0 sacks in his career.
Three Players to Know
RS Senior Dominique Ramsey, Safety/Returner 5-9 180
Fall Stats: 10 tackles (10 solo) 1 TFL 1 PBU
A returning All-American at both Kick Returner and Safety, Ramsey was voted pre-season LSC Defensive Player of the Year. Ramsey is an experienced veteran, who played in the 2017 National Title game against UWF and lead or shared the team lead in INT each of the last three seasons with 9 career INTs. As a Returner he is extremely dangerous, in 2019 he returned a Kickoff and a Punt for TDs, in 2018 2 Punt Return and 2 INT Returns for TDs, including a 99-yard return. So far in 2021 Ramsey is leading the team in solo tackles, but hasn’t made a huge impact as in years past.
It doesn’t appear that Ramsey has been returning kicks for the Lions this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do it in a big game like this. The Argos will need to be aware of him at all times, offense, defense, special teams, because he is the type of athlete that can make a big play every time he touches the ball. On defense, I think the goal will be to exploit the size mismatch between him and Ashley/Coates/Durden, who all go 6-2 or taller.
RS Senior Amon Simon, Left Tackle 6-5 275
Fall Stats: N/A
The first Offensive Lineman for the 2021 season to make this list, and Simon will be one of the best Tackles the Argos face this season. Simon is a long, athletic Tackle who started 25 games in the last two seasons at Left Tackle. In 2018 he was 1st Team All-Conference and in 2019 repeated in the 1st Team and was named conference Offensive Lineman of the Year. He will lead a veteran group who returned four starters from the 2019 season.
UWF has 7 sacks in the first two games, and will look to add to that this weekend. The Lions haven’t played that well in pass protection allowing 3 sacks and 7 hurries in 33 drop backs. The Argonauts still face a strong test, the good news is Matt Gotel, Aidan Swett, and Brandon Penerton only have to face one Amon Simon, but he has to face all of those three plus the various blitzing Linebackers and rotational defensive players.
RS Senior Elijah Earls, Defensive End 6-0 240
Fall Stats: 9 tackles (7 solo) 4.5 TFL 3.5 sacks 2 hurries
Earls is the top guy in the defensive front for the Lions two years running now. In 2019 as a Junior he had 9.5 sacks and 14 TFL and so far as a Senior he is second on the team in TFL (4.5) and first in sacks (3.5), coming off a 2.5 sack performance against Midwestern State. A compact End but powerful Defensive End, who's able to affect the run and rush the passer.
UWF has been excellent in pass protection, but Earls will be another challenge for the Argonauts Tackles. Bruce and Roman were able to neutralize McNeese State’s Isaiah Chambers so I expect that they’ll be up to the task, the Offense will probably also use the same strategies to slow him down, chipping with the Tight End, quick throws and check downs out of the backfield
Matchup of the Week
UWF’s Wide Receivers vs TAMUC’s Defensive Secondary
This will be the best secondary that West Florida’s offense has faced so far in this young season, and one of the better DB units they will face all season. The five DB starters from last week’s game with Midwestern State were:
RS Jr. Darius Williams 2019: 11 games
RS Sr. Kader Kohou 2019: 1st Team All-LSC 11 games
RS Sr. Alex Shillow 2019: 2nd Team All-LSC 8 games
RS Sr. Dominique Ramsey 2019: 1st Team All-LSC 13 games
Sr. D’Angelo Ellis transfer from Rice
Four of five guys played a lot of ball for the Lions last year, all five are 4th or 5th year players with experience, three of them were the All-Conference 1st or 2nd team, and one was a transfer from D1. This secondary allowed only 193 passing yards per game and 15 passing TDs in 13 games. They had more sub-100 yards allowed games (3) than they had game 300+ yards allowed games (2), and so far this year have allowed just over 300 yards in two games. It is a talented group, but a veteran one as well, who know how to generate turnovers and disrupt opposing offenses.
The Argonauts are obviously a passing team lead by a star QB, who has averaged 278 passing yards per game over his 17 career appearances as an Argonaut, and a great group of Receivers, so they have the weapons and experience to counter this defense. It is going to be a lot of fun to watch the game within the game between Offensive Coordinator Rudy Carlton and TAMUC Defensive Coordinator Xavier Adibi, as the strengths of these two teams get pitted against each other. Look for the Argos to test deep early in the game, trying to open up space to operate in the intermediate game, and soften up the middle to continue running the ball effectively with Mason and Newton.
Prediction
I think this game could be a lot different if Miklo Smalls was playing, I don’t believe he is supposed to play. He is a difference maker, and so far the backup QB Magalei hasn’t played great ball, then add to that the fact that this team lost a big game last weekend. That said, there is still a lot of talent on this Commerce team, they’ve got a veteran Offensive Line, a Back who had over 700 yards of offense and 8 TDs as a Junior in 2019, their top two sack guys had 17 total sacks in ‘19 and already 4 this year, an All-American Safety whos electric with the ball in his hand, and a host of other experienced and talented players. I do not expect that Commerce will come out flat against West Florida, as big of a matchup as this is, and expect the Argos to get the Lions A game on Saturday. It just won’t be enough, Argos win 38-21. Commerce is able to run the ball enough to make some drives happen, but West Florida just too much offense to hang with. The Defensive Line and Linebackers will have to carry the day for the Argonauts with Commerce leaning on the ground attack, but watch for D’Anthony Bell to have an impact game coming up in run support from his Strong Safety position.
