Week 11 Preview: Valdosta State
Valdosta State, GSC (D2)
Broadcast: FLOSPORTS 5 PM EST/4 PM CST
When We Last Saw Valdosta State
2021 Record: 9-0 (6-0)
Valdosta State has been on an absolute tear through the GSC this season, but the last two weeks have seen them play their closest games of the season. This past weekend the Blazers took on North Greenville who was just 4-5 coming into the game and had lost 4 out of their last 5 games. The Crusaders, however, gave VSU all they wanted early in that one, jumping out to a 7-0 lead and nearly taking a 10-0 lead before a blocked kick late in the 1st quarter shifted momentum to the Blazers. Still NGU didn’t go away, pushing the game to a 31-21 final despite a 530-258 yardage advantage and 27-16 in first downs. NGU was able to slow down the vaunted Blazers offense, forcing three punts and turning over QB Ivory Durham on back to back INT ending drives. But the stretch between the second punt (4:46 1st quarter) and the first INT (6:22 3rd quarter) was enough to do in the Saders. VSU scored TDs on four consecutive drives tallying 290 yards on 8.5 yards per play, and NGU only scored once over that stretch, with a blocked FG, two punts, and a TD. The Blazers were lead by Durham (423 total yards 1 TD) and Seth McGill (44 yards 3 TD) while Grad WR Brian Saunds put up season best marks for catches (15) yards (220) and scored 1 TD. Defensively they gave up just 38 yards of passing to Kaelen Riley, while sacking him twice and picking him off once. This season the Blazers have been a heavy run team, posting 269.2 yards per game (2nd in GSC), 7.0 yards per carry (1st), and 29 TD (t-1st). This has been lead by GSC 2nd leading rusher Seth McGill (812 yards 11 TD), 4th leading rusher Jamar Thompkins (747 yards 7 TD), and 7th leading rusher Ivory Durham (603 yards 8 TD). Durham leads all starting QBs in the conference in rushing yards, rushing average, and rushing TD, while adding 17 TD and 1930 yards through the air. Brian Saunds (763 yards 4 TD) and Lio’undre Gallimore (575 yards 9 TD) lead the way for the VSU pass catchers, that aren’t a particularly deep group with the 4th leading WR pulling in just 11 catches for 110 yars and 0 TD. Only five Blazers have caught TD passes, with Saunds and Gallimore combining for 13 of 17 total. Defensively, the Blazers are the best in the conference in scoring defense, passing defense, and total defense, as well as yards per play allowed. They are lead by a strong presence at all three levels including GSC leading tackler MLB Nick Moss (10.8 tackles per game), an All-GSC caliber DL in Brian Williams (4.5 sacks 9.5 TFL), and two very good corners in Christian Matthew (league leader in PBU) and Taurus Dotson (2nd in the GSC with 3 INT).
Series History
UWF has only managed to beat the Blazers once in their five meetings since 2016. Fortunately for the Argos it was the one that mattered most of all, toppling the undefeated GSC Champs in the 2nd round of the D2 playoffs in 2019 en route to a National Championship. The Argos had fallen in their four previous attempts to beat the Blazers including a 26-21 win in Valdosta just three weeks earlier. VSU won 48-21 in 2018 as they geared up for their own Championship run, and had taken double digit wins over the Argos in their first two games as well, including a 11 point win over the would be National Finalist ‘17 Argos squad. The first two times these teams met, the games were in September, but the last three games and this weekend’s contest all came in November with the stakes much higher.
In 2019 UWF was on a march through their season following a week 1 stumble against Carson-Newman, in which Austin Reed had not taken over his role as starter. Then came the week 9 trip to VSU, where the Argos fought back hard upending a 20-0 halftime deficit and forcing the Blazers to mount a 11 play 62 yard game clinching drive in the 4th quarter. Even still, UWF scored with 5:53 left in the game to make it a 5 point game, but after a defensive stop and getting the ball back the offense was unable to get a single first down and was forced to punt with 3:33 left in the game. The Blazers bled the clock and ran out the rest of the game for a nail biting 26-21 victory. The Argos came back with vengeance three weeks later, again taking the field in Valdosta, but this time it was the Argos who got the ball last and were able to punch it in with six seconds left on the clock to claim a 38-35 victory in a game where UWF had a comfortable 31-14 lead going into the final frame. Austin Reed had 298 yards and 1 TD 1 INT, while Anthony Johnson Jr added 73 yards and 3 TD. For the Blazers Seth McGill and Jamar Thompkins combined for 25 carries 144 yards and 3 TD, and since departed star QB Rogan Wells had 335 yards passing and 2 TD. Valdosta sacked Reed four times and forced two turnovers, but UWF came out on top and parlayed that into three more wins in the 2019 National Title run.
Three Players to Know
Junior Ivory Durham, QB 5-10 200
2021 Stats: 143-235 (60.9%) 1930 yards (8.2/attempt) 17 TD 5 INT 65 rush 603 yards (9.3/carry) 8 TD
Durham is a dangerous QB unlike UWF has faced this season. Having spent some of his collegiate time as a Running Back, the Blazers signal caller is a very slippery runner with good burst and vision. He can sling the ball, and throws well on the move, but really his strength is in breaking down a defense and finding the open guy. He isn’t the type that’ll sit back in the pocket against UWF and pick apart the secondary, but he will get outside of the pocket and make high percentage throws to his pass catchers. They aren’t a high volume passing offense (27 attempts per game), but they make the most of those throws (8.3 yards per attempt, 3rd in GSC). Durham’s 9.3 yards per carry is best in the conference, and because of his elusiveness he has been sacked just once this season in week 3 against Albany State.
UWF is going to have to have someone on Durham all night, and unfortunately that means fewer men in coverage. While Durham won’t likely kill UWF from the pocket, they’ve had issues stopping the pass at times this year, and could be facing some open WRs as they try to bottle up the run game. Trent Archie, who has been relatively quiet in the second half of the season, is going to have to come up big for UWF, along with D’Anthony Bell, in containing the QB to the pocket as much as possible and making him pay if he does get outside on a run.
Junior Seth McGill, RB 5-9 195
2021 Stats: 123 rush 812 yards (6.6/carry) 11 TD 11 catches 63 yards
Grad Christian Matthew, CB 6-4 200
2021 Stats: 23 tackles (13 solo) 0.5 sack 0.5 TFL 1 INT 14 PBU
VSU has three really good secondary defenders in Matthew, fellow Cornerback Taurus Dotson (3 INT 4 PBU), and Nickelback Cory Roberts (2 INT 5 PBU). I’m giving Matthew the nod of the three because he leads the league in PBU and that likely means he has allowed fewer completions, in the absence of advanced stats tracking DB targets. He is a unique defender in his physical makeup, a 6-4 guy who can cover outside WR is an imposing opponent. Against the three best passing teams they’ve faced this year, Matthew had 3, 5, and 3 PBUs. It is hard to get a lot of eyes on outside defensive backs on most of the live streams, simply because they’re made for TV viewing and everyone wants to watch the offense. The snips and bits you can see Matthew off the line, he looks pretty smooth in his transition from back pedal to running in coverage. He is clearly a massive guy for the position, but he is fluid, unlike a lot of 6-4 guys playing DB.
UWF is going to have to pick and choose where they go with the ball on offense. VSU is going to line up three solid cover guys across the line from their three top pass catchers, so either West Florida is going to have to find a matchup there they like or move guys around and try to disrupt the defensive communication. By my estimation, UWG only had one pass complete against Matthews, West Al had none (but he was called for a DPI), and Delta had one. These battles are going to determine the outcome of the game (see below).
Matchup of the Week
UWF Passing Offense vs VSU Passing Defense
The Blazers have, by far, the best passing defense in the conference in 2021. They have allowed just 112.9 yards per game through the air this season, and only 8 TD, best in the conference. They are holding opposing passers to 44.2% completions a 1:1 TD:INT ratio, and a paltry 4.7 yards per attempt. The next best passing defense, UWG, is allowing 56 more yards per game, almost 20% better completions, and 1.5 yards more per attempt. Valdosta State has allowed less than half the completions that UWF has allowed this season (95 vs 198). Lead by starting Corners Christian Matthew (1 INT 14 PBU) and Taurus Dotson (3 INT 4 PBU). The Blazers have also had a very potent pass rush, 25 sacks good for t-2nd in the GSC, along with 39 hurries for a total pressure rate of about 27% (64 pressures on 240 drop backs).
On the other side of the ball UWF is running away as the best passing team in the GSC, leading the league in yards (3023), TD (33), yards per game (335.9), and efficiency (165.4). The Argos 5.5:1 TD:INT ratio is best in the conference by far, with the next best being UWA at 3.8, and Austin Reed is in the top 10 for yards and TDs nationally. UWF has distanced themselves from the second most prolific passing offense, West Georgia, in both TD (33 to 21) and average (9.2 to 7.5), while throwing 64 fewer times than the Wolves. The Argos boast a quintet of pass catchers with more than 250 yards and 3 TD a piece, lead by three 500 yard WRs: Rodney Coates (37-651-6), David Durden (27-595-9), and Ka’Ron Ashley (39-573-8). The Argos have just one game this season (TAMUC) without a 100 yard pass catcher, and each of the 5 have had at least one Coates (2), Durden (3), Ashley (2), Rembert (1), and Smith (1)
So this really sets up as a unstoppable force vs unmovable object kind of matchup. The Blazers have allowed less than 100 yards five times this season, and only allowed more than 200 against Delta State (202) and West Georgia (228), while the Argos have surpassed 300 in last four contests and six times total for 2021. The Argos also eclipsed 400 last week against a good pass defense in UWA, and have a season low of 274 yards. The Argos have seven games with 4 passing TD this season, and at least 2 in each game this year, while VSU has allowed only 7 passing TD in GSC play and kept two teams out of the end zone on passing plays (MC and DSU). Only UWA (2) and UWG (3) have been able to find the end zone more than once against the Blazer pass defense.
One of the things the Argonauts have done well this season is to expose the matchup, rather than try to force the ball to a #1 guy. Coates will still probably get the most targets, as he has all season, but UWF went to Jared Smith against Shorter and Larry Rembert against MC, showing a willingness to get the 3rd guy involved if the defense dictates it. Now with the full compliment of WRs back up to full speed, West Florida will have a chance to test the 4th or 5th guy in coverage on Saturday, which may mean a quiet night from Coates or Ashley on the outside as they’re locked up with Matthew and Dotson, but could mean a lot of work from the slot with Durden, Rembert, and Smith. UWG also allowed 7 receptions for 49 yards against UWG’s Running Backs, and though we haven’t seen much of it in the last few weeks, Shomari Mason (17-169-1 and Ra’Veion Hargrove (3-45-1)are major weapons out of the backfield in the passing game.
Prediction
I wasn’t sure if this game would end up being this big. At the beginning of the season it was definitely set up to be a season finale for the ages, two top GSC teams, ranked in the pre-season top 5 or 10, the previous two D2 champs, it had all the markings of a really good game. But it is a long season, and had been a long time since either of these squads had played meaningful football, so I half expected it would end up being a matchup between one team that was in a position of contending and another that didn’t have the year they’d hoped. That couldn’t be further from the truth. What we ended up with is a matchup that will determine the conference championship and the seeding of Super Region 2, and ultimately have huge playoff implications. Valdosta State is trying to win their third consecutive conference championship and complete their third consecutive undefeated regular season, while UWF is attempting to clinch the conference for the first time and finish with the fewest regular season losses in program history (1). VSU and UWF share a lot of the same DNA, but play very different styles of football. Both teams have athletes across the board at all positions, guys that play fast and aggressive, right up to and sometimes over the edge in that respect. Both teams rely on their athletes making plays in space. Both teams want to score a ton and put pressure on opposing teams to keep up. The difference comes in how they do it, UWF wants to score fast and air it out, putting pressure on teams to cover four WR1 caliber pass catchers simultaneously. VSU wants to create spacing and run into that space. Their QB’s talents allows for a lot of improv, because that is where Durham goes from good QB to extremely dangerous. UWF hasn’t faced a run/pass threat like Durham since Patrick Shegog had a career night against the Argos, so there isn’t a ton of tape to look back at to say how they handle these types of situations. Valdosta has a lot more weapons and Durham is quite a bit more explosive of a runner than Shegog to boot. It is going to take another full team effort to topple the Blazers, but I have a feeling the Argos have been preparing themselves for this game all season long. West Florida gets a 35-30 victory to close out the regular season and propel them into the playoffs on a ton of momentum. The game is tight, but UWF is able to slow down the VSU running attack forcing Durham to throw more than the Blazers like.
